Before you start SEO: Simple forecasting for SEO

One would suggest before you start forecasting, you should already have a fairly clear idea of what terms you will be optimizing for. Solid keyword research is often the foundation for any successful SEO campaign, and even more so in the case of forecasting. Initial data should include at the very least

• Proposed target keywords
• Current visibility of proposed keywords
• If possible conversion rates for the site, either overall or via category if possible
• A proposed action plan of how you are going to approach your SEO campaign.

Initial activity should focus on providing a baseline for subsequent activity. IF nothing else, this provides a clear starting point for further KPI’s to be developed and provided to your client/boss. In order to

Developing the forecast

Once you have an initial baseline you are ready to start. There are a number of ways such forecasts can be developed. Neil Walker did a very good way of the way Just Search approach their forecasting for SEO purposes. This takes the shape of a blue sky framework using aggregated click through data to determine potential click through to the website.

However given the tools at your disposal, such a framework can be taken far more indepth to include:

• Impact month-on-month
• Conversion rate by category
• Information vs. Navigational CTR
• Seasonality

Don’t stand still
The search engine landscape is a constantly changing environment, and as with this landscape you should revisit the forecast on an ongoing basis. Blended search may provide more short term opportunities, particularly with the introduction of the recent Google Places Search results.

One should be revisiting your keyword research as a matter of course, and as a result the potential of your campaign changes in line with your keyword revisions. This should act as a sanity check as to whether your campaign is going to plan – and whether there is further requirement for increased campaign activity to achieve required results.

The financial factor
This is a debate that many have an opinion on – however one that still splits opinion. However by the mere fact that we are able to determine potential traffic via the forecast, it is possible to associate a financial return on the campaign and ensure that the campaign is financially attractive to both you – and more importantly your client. By integrating conversion rate and average order value into the baseline and 12 month forecast, it is possible to associate a potential return on investment to proposed activity and increased visibility.

To conclude
As I said earlier, any forecast should act as a guide. Very few forecasts (of any sort) are 100% accurate and SEO forecasts are no different. However what they do provide is a sanity check of the commercial fundamentals of your campaign, and an indication of just whether your campaign provides the financial justification for the investment in it.